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Sunday, June 10, 2007
Unhelpful commentary from Gen. Colin Powell, U.S. Army (ret.)
Gen. and former Secretary of State Colin Powell is a remarkable man whose career contributions to the American military and to the Bush-41 and -43 Administrations, although sometimes mixed, nevertheless deserve respect. But speaking today in an unofficial capacity on Meet the Press, he added nothing but confusion when he insisted — repeatedly and, as he acknowledged, contrary to statements of our current military commanders and the Bush-43 Administration — that Iraq is in the midst of a "civil war": "The question is, are we doing it [i.e., the "surge"] in the best possible way? [Or] are we delaying the inevitable conclusion of this civil war that ultimately will be fought out between Sunnis and Shi'ias, Shias and Shias, Sunnis and al-Qaeda?"
Okay, then, General: If it's a civil war, then whose side are we on? Who do we shoot on sight now? Who are we rooting for, and which one of the groups you've listed do we want to see win the civil war?
If you can't answer that, then it's not a civil war, General!
If, somehow, we could magically wall off outside influence from state actors like Iran and Syria, and from non-state extrinsic terror organizations like al-Qaeda, would there still be a "civil war"? Iran and Syria and even al-Qaeda aren't engaged in a "civil war." Rather, they're engaged in what is essentially a proxy war — with us, via terrorist operatives and militia proxies. Their primary motivation for engaging in acts of anti-government terrorist against civilians is to create instability that weakens the West, and in particular the United States, as part of a struggle that they're convinced they'll win not on the battlefield of a genuine civil war, but via votes tabulated inside the United States Capitol Building. (That, after all, is where the communist Soviets and Chinese, who were never able to directly or indirectly best the American military, finally won their proxy war against the United States — and only then were the North Vietnamese able to win their civil war.)
It's not inconceivable that such a day might come when there will be Iraqi Kurds seeking to carve out their own independent nation, with Iraqi Shi'ite and Iraqi Sunni forces fighting to achieve some sort of ugly split, via ethnic-cleansing and mass-refugee creation, of the remainder of the country into Shi'ite and Sunni-dominated states. When and if there were combat going on, even guerrilla combat, to accomplish those ends, then that struggle could fairly be called a "civil war."
And I have no doubt, for example, that with military and economic aid, plus some air power and special forces support, we could readily enable the Iraqi Kurds to win a civil war. (Of course, we might end up having to call in air strikes on our NATO ally Turkey to do that. It's not a pleasant prospect.)
But they aren't at that point yet. If — as Gen. Powell also stressed is essential — the fledgling Iraqi government can succeed in reconciling Iraq's internal factions, there won't be a civil war. And the essential keys to permit that success by the Iraqi government — as Gen. Powell also acknowledged, and as everyone on our side ought to be able to agree — are the suppression of such outside influences while assisting the Iraqi army and police in achieving the difficult and inevitably stutter-stepped task of becoming professionally effective forces that can implement the Iraqi government's political decisions (including power-sharing, stake-spreading compromises).
And it's a toss-up right now whether the bigger challenge to that three-pronged strategy's success is the conflict among parties in and around Iraq, or instead the conflict among parties in and around the Washington Beltway. By holding on, by keeping the Iraqi experiment with democracy alive, until the Iraqis can ensure that there will be no genuine and outright civil war, we can indeed thereby also win the proxy war. But that is more a question of sustained willpower and political courage than of sustained firepower or military tactics — and those are indeed the areas in which, as a nation, our war-fighting abilities are the weakest and most vulnerable.
Precisely because of that vulnerability, ideas matter. Words matter. Labels matter.
Colin Powell would never go on American television and say, "I have no confidence in the 82nd Airborne Division. They're badly led, inadequately equipped, and they're almost certain to fail in their next assignment." Even if he thought that — especially if he thought that! — he would have better sense than to let his public words undercut their morale and their purpose and, thereby, their mission.
And Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi can spout crap all day long about how this is a "civil war" that we're in the middle of, and it's unfortunate, but it's just not as big a deal. No one is under any illusion that the likes of those two can tell a civil war from a civil engineer from a civil disobedience rally. Everyone knows they're speaking to and for the likes of MoveOn.org and Michael Moore. So when it comes from their mouths, as then heard by our military forces, by our allies in Iraq, and by our friends and foes elsewhere in the world, the language of distortion, leading so literally and so directly to the language of defeat, can be somewhat discounted.
But when an American military leader of the stature of Colin Powell, though, goes on television and repeatedly, deliberately declares — nay, insists — that this already is a "civil war," then he adds no clarity to the situation. Instead, he hands a propaganda victory to the Iranian, Syrian, al-Qaeda, and other forces who so very much want the struggle in Iraq to be perceived as a civil war now, in large part so that we'll cut and run and thereby permit it to degenerate into a genuine civil war in the future.
This just makes me angry. Gen. Powell is a patriot, but in this particular regard, he's acting the fool. And as a fool he's giving our enemies for free something that our soldiers — and our allies in the fledgling Iraqi government, military, and police forces — are literally spilling blood every day to try to deny them.
Gen. Powell should know better. He doesn't owe a duty not to criticize or to engage in dissent. But he does owe a duty not to adopt the demonstrably wrong verbal distortions that are so desperately desired and relied upon by our enemies.
Posted by Beldar at 03:29 PM in Global War on Terror | Permalink
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Comments
(1) steve sturm made the following comment | Jun 11, 2007 1:57:11 PM | Permalink
I have to disagree with you Beldar.
1 - It can be a civil war without our needing to be on one side or the other. Perhaps if I thought long enough, I might find one of the warring factions slightly less evil, and therefore the side I should root for, but right now I'm content with them killing each other (every nut who blows himself up killing other Iraqis is one less nut who can kill Americans).
2 - Yes, there would still be a civil war even if you walled off Iraq from outside influences. It might not be as bloody, but the Iraqis are not trying to kill one another because outsiders are telling them to do so, but rather because a whole bunch of them would rather try to kill each other than agree to share power with those they disagree.
3- Supporters of pushing democracy on Iraq seem to miss the point that "keeping the Iraqi experiment with democracy alive" requires a lot more than just purple fingers, it requires respecting the outcome of the vote. And this is where the Iraqi people fail miserably: sure, they showed up to vote, but they've (collectively) done very little to follow up. American soldiers are dying, not to prop up a fledging democracy, but rather for a cheap facade of one. If the Iraqis aren't willing to do the work to turn their country around (and by Iraqis, I mean a whole lot more of them than is the case), why should we bother?
(2) willem made the following comment | Jun 14, 2007 1:42:19 AM | Permalink
What is the current mess but the price of Powell's catastrophic failure as Secretary of State to secure right of transit for the US 4th Infantry Division to invade Iraq from the north. It's mission was crucial to the post-invasion phase: occupy and totally dominate the Sunni Triangle. They had trained for months for this role, and were broadly considered to be the most modern, integrated and mechanized infantry ever fielded in wartime.
Tommy Franks saved the invasion from Powell's bungling with a phenomenal thrust from the south, toppling Saddam, but he could not save the victory from the chaos of 4ID failing to roll per plan. They were eight weeks late; the opportunity for early control completely lost, giving the factions ample time to regroup and organize a resistance in the force vacuum that was suffered in the first crucial weeks after Saddam fell.
The 4ID was meant to be the anvil for Franks' hammer, and thanks to Powell, et al, the anvil was missing. The sabotage and treachery leading to their forced absence from the Sunni Triangle in the first 8 weeks of the war is the untold story of Iraq conflict.
Powell's "leadership" and lack of candor on these points has been a genuine disappointment.
(3) DWPittelli made the following comment | Jun 16, 2007 6:44:27 AM | Permalink
Who cares if we call it a "civil war" or indeed, if it "is" a civil war? Kosovo was, to the same extent, a civil war. That did not mean it was necessarily a bad idea to deal with it militarily, as Clinton would have to concede.
The relevant question is whether things will get better or worse for Iraq, the region, and the West, if we pull out. This is pretty much independent of the "civil war" question.
steve sturm:
It might be the case that there would be no conflict in Iraq in the absence of foreign influences. Zarqawi's strategy was to kill Shiites and blow up their shrines, precisely to trigger a civil war. It would appear that this is what has happened.
willem,
Perhaps. On the other hand, we somehow obtained surprise in 2003 despite this being the most telegraphed invasion in history. That might be because Saddam et al assumed we would not attack until 4ID was in place.
I am not claiming that steve and willem are necessarily wrong with either of their claims, just that in the absence of parallel universes running different realities, we cannot know that their statements are true, and the opposite "truths" seem equally likely to me.
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