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Wednesday, August 01, 2012

Cruz' big win foreshadows watershed election in November

My prediction had the right result, but the final totals were not nearly as close as the five-point difference I'd predicted: As of this moment, with 100 percent of precincts reported, it's Cruz 56.8% versus Dewhurst 43.19% in a blow-out.

David Dewhurst may want to reconsider even running for reelection to his current spot as lieutenant governor. He and Rick Perry both look like yesterday's news.

This gives me all kinds of warm-and-fuzzies for the November presidential election, friends and neighbors. Texas isn't in play, nor is it a mirror for all of America. And the total GOP turnout was quite high for a primary runoff, but still represented only 8.6% of the state's total population of 13 million registered voters.

But for perspective on that: The Dem run-off for this U.S. Senate seat drew a truly pathetic 1.8% of the registered voter total, a mere 235,708 voters compared to 1,106,224 voters in the GOP runoff. The Dems' run-off winner, in other words, should simply be listed as "Who Cares?"

And here's the genuinely amazing statistic: Ted Cruz drew only 480,558 votes out of 1,406,648 total voters (34.16%) in the May 29th initial GOP primary. In this run-off, he drew 628,336 votes out of 1,106,224 total voters (56.8%). Almost as many Texas Republicans voted in the run-off as in the primary, but Cruz' relative performance among them simply skyrocketed. Cruz' net improvement (147,778 votes) was nearly two-thirds of the total Democratic runoff turnout!

This result bespeaks a well-informed populace among whom highly motivated constitutional/movement conservatives are getting incredible traction. This result sings one word to me: "Watershed." It makes me, again, wish that the national GOP had Paul Ryan at the top of its ticket, because he and Ted Cruz are both emblematic of the party's new generation, the "Young Guns" who, ironically, will return America to sustainable principles and limited government. And I think the hunger for that extends far beyond Texas' borders.

Perhaps Gov. Romney will take the hint.

Posted by Beldar at 03:59 AM in 2012 Election, Politics (2012), Politics (Texas), Romney, Ryan, Texas | Permalink

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Comments

(1) Stephen made the following comment | Aug 1, 2012 9:01:22 AM | Permalink

Delighted to see you breaking radio silence! Even more delighted at the victory of the Beldar-endorsed candidate.

If Romney does pick Ryan, I hope he does it as close to the convention as possible (so that he can use his general campaign funds as soon as possible) and has a full raft of anti-Mediscare commercials on the shelf ready to roll.

Are the likely voters this year serious enough and engaged enough to see through the incumbent president's ink squid campaign of obfustication, blame-shifting, finger pointing, and anti-American class envy? I pray every day that it is so ...

So, how was the Chick-Fil-A at the victory celebration?

(2) ech made the following comment | Aug 1, 2012 12:59:33 PM | Permalink

I think the "Cruz isn't 'establishment'" rehtoric is overblown. He was appointed by George Bush to be the Texas Solicitor General, so he' hardly and outsider. Certainly, he reached out to everyone, including the Tea Party, and Dewhurst seemingly didn't - and good for him.

My vote for Cruz yesterday was due to a few factors:
- Dewhurst is on the old side (66), and I think that would, by the end of his term, affect his performance.
- the negative ads by Dewhurst were a big turnoff, as I commented here yesterday.
- both would vote the same way 95% of the time in the Senate, as there didn't seem to be many policy differences between them

I'm no fan of the legal profession, having seen how plaintiff's attorneys cost my father huge amounts of worry and time in pursuing bogus malpractice claims against him. But there are two kinds of lawyers - those that cause problems and those that solve them. Cruz seems to be a solver.

(3) ech made the following comment | Aug 1, 2012 1:02:35 PM | Permalink

Quick clarification on the first paragraph - I'm expressing approval of how Ted Cruz would reach out and talk with anyone in the Republican party and base. If he's willing to listen to the whole party, then he'll probably listen to everyone in Texas.

(4) DRJ made the following comment | Aug 1, 2012 6:59:18 PM | Permalink

I agree this could be a watershed election. It reminds me of the Nixon-McGovern race because IMO voters were choosing between competing philosophies more than competing candidates. (Even pundits viewed the race as more about philosophies than personalities.)

But this could be wishful thinking on my part.

(5) Colonel Haiku made the following comment | Aug 1, 2012 8:45:56 PM | Permalink

I think you're on to something, Beldar. That is a big reason why most of the pollsters oversample Democrats in almost every poll... they are pulling out all stops, in an effort to promote the re-election of this buffoon we are saddled with.

Nearly every one of my center-to-right friends and co-workers are fired-up, to say the least. I, for one, think it portends well for November.

(6) Michael made the following comment | Aug 1, 2012 11:44:31 PM | Permalink

Ross Douthat sees Paul Ryan in the running* but sees the choice as coming down to either Portman or Jindal*. Dewhurst apparently set out to define Cruz 'before he could define himself' as they say. That is the strategy Obama is using against Romney. You can see the problems with that strategy in the race here. Once the voters see the exaggeration and misrepresentation it vitiates the attacker.

*http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/31/the-palin-effect/?hp

(7) Jim Howard made the following comment | Aug 2, 2012 11:40:17 AM | Permalink

I think the Cruz landslide ant the Chick-FillA buycott are symptoms of the same thing.

Yesterday every Chic-FillA in Austin had traffic jams in the drive through lanes and was body-to-body inside. This was happening all over the country.

I personally think the folks packing Chic-FillA were less interested in gay marriage and much more interested in sending politicians a message that they are fed up with being ordered around by arrogant government officials.

A person will to cram him or her self into a fast food joint to make a political statement, for whatever reason, is going to crawl over ground glass if that's what it takes to vote in November.

(8) Greg Q made the following comment | Aug 10, 2012 3:29:33 PM | Permalink

Welcome back! :-)

One of the things I found most amazing was that Cruz got more votes in the runoff (despite the lower turnout) than Dewhurst got in the primary.

We're going to crush the Democrats in November. We're going to get out, and vote, and we're going to do it in greater proportions than the Democrats. That's going to be worth a good 3% over and above the polls.

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