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Monday, April 23, 2007
A note folded away until 11/08
I lunched last week with three good friends — brothers at the bar whose lively banter, shoptalk, and political ruminations and arguments I much relish. In their personal politics, they are, in varying degrees, considerably to my left, and somewhat left of the hypothetical "center." One of them, by contrast, will insist that he is atop the political center by definition, since he supports the world-class triangulator of the 2008 race, Sen. Clinton. Another of my friends was in a t-shirt with a silk-screened image of George W. Bush, captioned: "I'll bet you're gonna vote next time, aren't you, hippie?"
Our conversation inevitably turned to the 2008 election and the likely nominees of each party. For what it's worth — and the answer to that is, it ought to be worth three of us buying rounds of drinks some evening in November 2008 — here were our lunchtime predictions. (Note: These are not necessarily our preferences, and in at least one case they definitely are not.) I cast them now upon the internet as a digital time-capsule, to be printed out and formally presented by the winning prognosticator (if any), in connection with settling up that bar bill of the future:
Friend #1: Clinton/Warner defeats Giuliani/Frist.
Friend #2: Clinton/Obama defeats Giuliani/Thompson.
Friend #3: Clinton/Obama defeats Romney/Giuliani.
Me: Thompson/Romney defeats Obama/Bayh.
(These predictions having been written by me in ink on a business reply mail flyer that came with our lunch check, I cannot now make any changes for official purposes. But after some further reflection, I would replace Bayh with Bill Richardson.)
The "Thompson" references above are all to Fred, not Tommy. But the best "wish-they-would" ticket suggestion of this lunch came from Friend #1, who noted that a Fred Thompson/Tommy Thompson ticket for the GOP could use the Thompson Twins' 1983 pop hit, Hold Me Now, as its campaign theme song — something to do, I suppose, with feeling secure in a time of international terrorism. But to my way of thinking, its lyrics — with lines like "We fuss and we fight and delight in the tears that we cry until dawn" and "You say I'm a dreamer, we're two of a kind / Both of us searching for some perfect world we know we'll never find" — are definitely Blue-State.
Posted by Beldar at 01:14 AM in 2008 Election | Permalink
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Comments
(1) sherlock made the following comment | Apr 24, 2007 9:43:08 AM | Permalink
I hope you enjoy the meal on your friends! Does seem a bit unfair to take advantage of ones so delusional.
(2) rhodeymark made the following comment | Apr 24, 2007 12:12:26 PM | Permalink
Thompson/Steele def. Clinton/Obama, with the side benefit being the Mother of all Debates™
(3) My Boaz's Ruth made the following comment | Apr 24, 2007 1:46:18 PM | Permalink
Interesting that you are the only one thinking Clinton won't be on the ticket.
(4) Halteclere made the following comment | Apr 25, 2007 11:46:34 AM | Permalink
Interesting VP choices of Friend #1. Both Warner and Frist had spoken about the idea of running for President, but last fall Warner declined to launch a campaign, and Frist has been laying low since the first of this year. Has Frist been doing anything these last few months to keep his name in the buzz (a la Gore) for a late race entry?
Speaking of late race entries - which I think is a good plan for someone who doesn't have the buzz or fundraising capability to go head-to-head with the current candidates - who else may be waiting for candidate fatigue before jumping into the fray? Who would everyone like to make a run for the President?
A final note of interest: nobody gave a nod to McCain (My opinion is that his political appeal is less than what it was in 2000).
(5) Rorschach made the following comment | Apr 25, 2007 3:49:58 PM | Permalink
I'm thinking Thompson/Hunter myself. With Tancredo being tapped for head of DHS and John Bolton Tapped as Sec State.
(6) Carol Herman made the following comment | Apr 28, 2007 9:39:44 PM | Permalink
Be nice, when you come back to your blog predictions, to pick up our comments, too. Because I think the drinks aren't gonna be coming round.
Though, yes,it's interesting to see Warner, suddenly showing up with Hillary. (Who doesn't stand a chance.)
Guiliani, however, would be the kind of bet, similar to the one Lincoln asked others to make in 1860. He was the only one of 4, and in last place; running against favorite sons.
But back then? What was odd? No one had anything nice to say about his opponents. Except Lincoln. Who refused to say anything bad about the 3 men with whom he was vying. For the nomination.
Well, Lincoln WON IT. And, then? He asked each of his 3 rivals to join him in his cabinet. Doris Kearns Goodwin's excellent book about this is called TEAM OF RIVALS.
What's most surprising in your predictions? No McCain.
Well, IF Guiliani WINS; and I think Frist would be a terrible choice to be his veep; especially given the health concerns people would have of Guiliani making it through 4 years ... Is that I thought he'd travel with McCain. So both men would attact the votes you're counting on Hillary, getting.
But what do I know? I can't imagine Obama doing well. And, getting the nod? Nah.
So, whose gonna buy the rounds? When of your choices, they all can lose?
(7) El Jefe Maximo made the following comment | May 10, 2007 8:50:01 AM | Permalink
Good to have some opinions on this: I must be the only conservative blogger who doesn't. I have dreaded focusing on the next election. . .but would love to see your prediction pan out, even though personally,I'm leaning towards McCain -- which I never thought I'd EVER say.
I also find it interesting that you don't think Mrs. Clinton is the other side's nominee. . .if she's not, she'll wreck the party trying to be.
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