Lies about "the George W. Bush Recession™ of 2008" are well underway

The headline reads: "Most Economists Say Recession Has Arrived as Outlook Darkens." The breathless, unequivocal text at the beginning of the article is unrelentingly foreboding in tone:

The U.S. has finally slid into recession, according to the majority of economists in the latest Wall Street Journal economic-forecasting survey, a view that was reinforced by new data showing a sharp drop in retail sales last month.

"The evidence is now beyond a reasonable doubt," said Scott Anderson of Wells Fargo & Co., who was among the 71% of 51 respondents to say that the economy is now in a recession.

These people are lying to you.

The word "recession" has a very, very specific meaning in classical economics. In fact, this same article admits that (emphasis mine), just before it starts to lie:  "Although the classic definition of recession is two consecutive quarters of declines in the gross domestic product ...." If these people were being candid, they would complete this sentence by saying, "... but in this article we're using that same word, 'recession,' to mean something different, something poorly defined, something vague, and something ominous, all because it suits our purposes better and we don't mind being liars."

Here's the absolutely, positively, official and unequivocal latest information on the United States gross domestic product from the United States Department of Commerce, in an official press release dated February 28, 2008, a mere two weeks ago:

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007, according to preliminary estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.9 percent.

There is your proof. It is definitive, and it is simple, and because it is definitional in nature, it is not subject to doubt, reasonable or otherwise. Based on the most current information now available, the United States is not now in a recession. At worst, if it turns out that there is a decrease in GDP for the first quarter of 2008 (which has not yet ended, much less been definitively measured), and it then turns out that there is also a decrease in GDP for the second quarter of 2008 (which has not yet even begun), then we will be in a recession.

Short of that, you can talk about "down-turns," or you can talk about "not meeting expectations." But if you use the word "recession" to mean something other than two consecutive quarters of declines in the gross national product, you're misusing that word, and you're a liar.

So why lie? To what people and in what contexts does the word "recession" have significance? Why, in other words, could these economists and their publicists want to mislead you about this word? Why do they mislead you into believing that "recessions" are determined by "economic-forecasting surveys" instead of GDP data?

That's also dirt simple: The word "recession" has come to have cosmic significance to voters in election season. The people who are lying to about whether we're already "in a recession" are trying to ensure that a Democrat is elected in November.

To do that, they require that there be not just "the Recession of 2008," but "the George W. Bush™ Recession of 2008." To do that, they require that you look not at GDP, which is relatively objective and definite, but at surveys and poll results that they can spin into whatever they like. "Hey, 71% of 51 respondents! Wow, that's beyond a reasonable doubt!" they tell you. That sounds plausible, if you don't know any better.

They're relying on the fact that many voters don't know any better.

And if you doubt that, you're just the kind of sucker they've been looking for, and they've got you fooled. But your intelligence is definitely in a recession.

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UPDATE (Sat Mar 15 @ 1:40pm): Thanks for the many interesting comments so far, and to DRJ for the link from Patterico's, where there are also many interesting comments. Let me add something to my original thinking, though, for those of you who are having a hard time deciding whether these economists are merely being loose in their terminology, or are actively lying.

We know beyond any doubt whatsoever that the quarterly GDP for the most recent quarter on which we have that information, the fourth quarter of 2007, showed a growth in GDP. It was a small growth, but it was in fact a grown that surprised, and contradicted the previous predictions of, many of these exact same economists, who during the fourth quarter of 2007 were already predicting that the mortgage crunch in particular would be seen to have put us into a recession beginning in that quarter. So:

(a) If economists or those writing about the economy want to make an unequivocally truthful statement, one that involves no guesswork — and thereby to avoid deception through significant and material omissions of crucial context — shouldn't they point out that as of year-end 2007, the United States economy was, by definition, definitely not in a recession?

(b) Wouldn't it also be more honest — I would argue, minimally necessary to be honest at all — to further admit that any statements they make about whether we're in a recession now are based on guesswork and predictions, because (again by definition) whether we're in a recession now cannot be determined until we at least have the second quarter 2008 GDP numbers? Finally:

(c) If you agree with me that facts (a) and (b) would be useful to include in a fair discussion of our current economy and our prospects, can you possibly deny that omitting those facts favors those who are highly motivated — for reasons of partisan politics, i.e., to defeat Republican office-holders and candidates —  to portray the economy in very bleak terms by using that second-bleakest (after "depression") economic word?